SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Elbehri, Aziz; McDougall, Robert; Horridge, Mark.

This paper describes a global model for agriculture and bioenergy (GLOMAB) that incorporates biomass, biofuels and bioelectricity sectors into the GTAP-Energy model by expanding the global GTAP database, production and consumption structures. Biofuels are separated between first- generation (sugar ethanol, starch ethanol) and second- generation (cellulosic ethanol) biofuels and associated biomass feedstocks (maize, sugar cane, crop residues, woody biomass). Beside biofuels, the model also incorporates bioelectricity (as separate form conventional electricity) which competes for the same biomass feedstocks with cellulosic ethanol sector (agricultural residues, woody biomass). With this broad-based representation of the bioenergy system likely to prevail...

A multi-regional general equilibrium model to assess policy effects at regional level

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Renewable Energy; Biomass; Agricultural Markets; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE); Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C68; Q18; Q42; R14.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51914

Lovo, Stefania; Magnani, Riccardo; Perali, Carlo Federico.

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model (MEG-R) to compare the social desirability of the CAP reform in the three Italian macro-regions: North, Center and South. The model employs a mixed complementary framework that allows for the decision of not producing a particular crop in one or more regions and presents an attempt to model interregional trade flows. The model incorporates the links between production and consumption that characterize farm household’s behavior and allows for heterogeneous household responses across regions. Results show a general tendency to reallocations from cereal crops to forage that appear more severe in the South. In this region, the reduction in crops cannot be translated into an effective expansion of...

An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations

Palavras-chave: Multi-regional general equilibrium model; Farm households; Interregional trade; Agricultural and Food Policy; C68; R13; Q18.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98996

Hess, Sebastian.

CGE models are widely used tools for economic assessments of trade policy changes. However, overall confidence in their results tends to be low. We employ the methodological framework of meta-analysis in order to approach a quantitative comparison of CGE-based simulation results. Therefore, we compile a dataset of twelve recent Doha simulations and fit a linear regression model that explains the variance between simulation results on the regional level as a function of various modeling characteristics. The estimates are broadly in range with documented qualitative knowledge about modeling assumptions. The size of the sample limits general conclusions; however, an ongoing research project will extend the approach to a larger sample.

An Economy-wide Analysis of Impacts on Taiwan of Reducing Tariff Escalation on Agriculture-Related Products in WTO Doha Round Negotiations

Palavras-chave: CGE; Systematic review; Doha round; Evaluation; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C20; C68; D58; F10; C99.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24713

Lee, Huey-Lin; Chang, Ching-Cheng; Weng, Yung-Ho; Hsu, Sheng-Ming; Hsu, Shih-Hsun.

Tariff escalation becomes one of the major issues in the new Doha Round negotiation because it is viewed as a stumbling block to the industrialization development for the developing countries. When tariffs on products escalate with the stage of processing, the effective rate of protection, or the tariff expressed as fractions of value-added after deducting intermediate inputs from product value, also increases. Thus, tariff escalation potentially signals high rates of protection for value-added or processed products, and can inhibit international trade in these goods. The major purpose of this study is to examine the degrees of tariff escalations in Taiwan's agriculture -related commodities and the economic consequences to reduce them. A simplified...

An Economy-wide Analysis of Impacts on Taiwan of Reducing Tariff Escalation on Agriculture-Related Products in WTO Doha Round Negotiations

Palavras-chave: Tariff escalation; Tariff wedge; Computable general equilibrium model; International Relations/Trade; F13; C68; Q17.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6170

Lee, Huey-Lin; Chang, Ching-Cheng; Weng, Yung-Ho; Hsu, Sheng-Ming; Hsu, Shih-Hsun.

Tariff escalation becomes one of the major issues in the new Doha Round negotiation because it is viewed as a stumbling block to the industrialization development for the developing countries. When tariffs on products escalate with the stage of processing, the effective rate of protection, or the tariff expressed as fractions of value-added after deducting intermediate inputs from product value, also increases. Thus, tariff escalation potentially signals high rates of protection for value-added or processed products, and can inhibit international trade in these goods. The major purpose of this study is to examine the degrees of tariff escalations in Taiwan’s agriculture-related commodities and the economic consequences to reduce them. A simplified...

An EU-Canada bilateral trade agreement: A DefraTAP application

Palavras-chave: Tariff escalation; Tariff wedge; Computable general equilibrium model; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; C68; Q17.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51655

Kitou, Elisavet; Philippidis, George.

The first round of negotiations held in Ottawa on the 19th October, 2009, heralded the opening of bilateral trade talks intent on reaching a Canadian-European Union (EU27) free trade area (FTA) agreement. A second round of negotiations were staged in Brussels in January, whilst further rounds are scheduled for 2010, with the longer term aim of ratifying an agreement within 24-30 months. Although stumbling blocs will be encountered, the divergent political interests of each region are compatible. In Canada, a FTA with its second largest trading partner offers a viable alternative to its current overdependence on the US. Similarly, the EU27 sees an opportunity to regain a competitive foothold in the North American market. This paper re-examines the long run...

An Ex post Evaluation of Economic Impacts of Foot-and-Mouth Disease on Taiwan Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

Palavras-chave: EU27; Canada; Economic integration; Sensitive products; International Relations/Trade; C68; F11; F15; F17.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91679

Hsu, Shih-Hsun; Lee, Duu-Hwa; Chang, Ching-Cheng; Lin, Hsing-Chun; Yang, Tzu-Chiang.

The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in 1997 has resulted in significant losses to Taiwan's hog industry which was the most important industry in Taiwan's agricultural sector at that time. Hog farmers have suffered great losses due to the cost of slaughtering infected hogs and reduced revenues in the hog market. Furthermore, all pork exports are prohibited according to the Office International des Epizooties (OIE) regulation. There have been a number of ex ante studies that have quantified the potential impacts of FMD on Taiwan's economy (e.g., Tsai 1999, Lin and Hsu 1999). That is, the potential impact assessment was done when the event of FMD just broke out. This article provides an ex post economy-wide assessment of the FMD impacts on...

Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?

Palavras-chave: Foot-and-mouth disease; Ex post simulation; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE); Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C68; BE27; BL16.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19545

Verma, Monika; Valenzuela, Ernesto; Hertel, Thomas W..

With the advent of the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda, as well as the Millennium Development Goals aiming to reduce poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have attracted increasing attention. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reform due to the importance of food in the diets of the poor, relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as the heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be undetectable. This paper formally tests this “invisibility hypothesis” via...

Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. An Updated CGE Point of View

Palavras-chave: Trade policy reform; Agricultural trade; Computable general equilibrium; Developing countries; Poverty headcount; Volatility; Stochastic simulation; Non-parametric hypothesis testing; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C68; F17; I32; Q17; R20.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61793

Bosello, Francesco; Eboli, Fabio; Pierfederici, Roberta.

The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase (+0.18%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15% and -0.21% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Computable General Equilibrium Modeling; Impact Assessment; Climate Change; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; Q51; Q54.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121700

Capital Malleability and the Macroeconomic Costs of Climate Policy

Lanzi, Elisa; Sue Wing, Ian.

This paper argues for introducing the role of capital malleability into the analysis of environmental policies. The issue is explored by means of a theoretical model, a numerical analysis and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Considering the three approaches together is fundamental in obtaining theory-compatible policy-relevant results. The model outcomes reveal differences between results under separate assumptions regarding the malleability of capital. When capital is imperfectly malleable a carbon policy is less effective than under the assumption of perfect malleability of capital. Therefore, it is important that, especially for the analysis of short-term environmental regulations, the issue of capital malleability is taken into...

Climate Change and Agriculture In South Asia: Looking for An Optimal Trade Policy

Palavras-chave: General Equilibrium; CGE Models; Climate Change Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; D58; H22; Q43.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59476

Laborde, David.

This paper aims to study how alternative trade policies will help mitigate the effects of climate change in agriculture in South Asia. We use a modified version of MIRAGE CGE for long term projections and allowing modeling of climate change effects (impact on yield) at a subregional level (163 geographical units at the world level) to simulate the effects of 13 SRES scenarios in 8 different trade policy landscapes. Based on these results, we discuss the ranking of trade policy options based on expected values but also in terms of variance using the theory of decision in uncertainty. Choices between unilateral and regional strategies for the countries of the sub regions are compared. Our results confirm that South Asia will be one of the most adversely...

Climate Change Assessment and Agriculture in General Equilibrium Models: Alternative Modeling Strategies

Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Trade Policy; Computable General Equilibrium; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Q54; C68; N5; N75; O24; F13; Q11; Q17.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104526

Palatnik, Ruslana Rachel; Roson, Roberto.

Agricultural sectors play a key role in the economics of climate change. Land as an input to agricultural production is one of the most important links between economy and the biosphere, representing a direct projection of human action on the natural environment. Agricultural management practices and cropping patterns have a vast effect on biogeochemical cycles, freshwater availability and soil quality. Agriculture also plays an important role in emitting and storing greenhouse gases. Thus, to consistently investigate climate policy and future pathways for the economic and natural environment, a realistic representation of agricultural land-use is essential. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have increasingly been used to this purpose. CGE models...

Climate Change Catastrophes

Palavras-chave: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE); Partial Equilibrium (PE); Agriculture; Land Use; Climate Change; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; D58; Q24; Q51; Q54.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54284

Pizer, William A..

Most studies that compare price and quantity controls for greenhouse gas emissions under uncertainty find that price mechanisms perform substantially better. In these studies, the benefits from reducing emissions are proportional to the level of reductions, and such linear benefits strongly favor price policies (Weitzman 1974). Catastrophic damages, however, challenge that intuition as consequences become highly nonlinear. Catastrophe avoidance offers huge benefits, and incremental adjustments on either side of the associated threshold are relatively unimportant, suggesting a strong preference for quantity controls. This paper shows that with catastrophic damages, both price and quantity mechanisms offer large gains over the business-as-usual alternative,...

COPPER CRISIS AND AGRICULTURAL RENAISSANCE IN ZAMBIA: AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Global warming; Prices versus quantities; Stock externalities; Integrated assessment; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q28; D81; C68.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10499

Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James.

Zambia's strong dependence on copper exports has suppressed other tradables sectors, indicative of a Dutch disease phenomenon. The current copper crisis will have strong economic effects, possibly reversing such Dutch disease effects. We use a computable general equilibrium model built around a 1995 social accounting matrix to simulate the short- and long-run effects of two scenarios that reflect the current crisis, a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of copper mining. Compared to the short run, the long run is characterized by more flexibility in production technology and capital allocation. Both scenarios require a significant reduction in the "non-copper" trade deficit, absorption, and household consumption. The...

Dispute Settlement at the WTO: Impacts of a No Deal in the US-Brazil Cotton Dispute

Palavras-chave: Zambia; Copper; Structural adjustment; Agriculture; General equilibrium; International Development; C68; O55; Q17; Q32.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25805

Lakatos, Csilla; Walmsley, Terrie L..

On the day before Brazil was to start imposing retaliatory sanctions against the US in the WTO dispute settlement case regarding unfair domestic and export upland cotton subsidies, the parties have reached a preliminary concession aimed at settling this 8-year-long trade dispute. In this paper, we explore the economy wide impacts of a no deal with speciﬁc emphasis on intellectual property retaliation in a computable general equilibrium framework. As awarded by a WTO dispute settlement panel, Brazil would have been entitled to $591 million in retaliatory sanctions in goods sectors and $238 million in intellectual property sanctions. We ﬁnd that retaliation by Brazil would have led to welfare gains for all countries except the US. Most importantly...

Does Agricultural Trade Liberalization under FTA Reduce Pollution from Agriculture? : The Case of the Japan-Korea FTA

Palavras-chave: Dispute settlement; WTO; Intellectual property; Computable general equilibrium; International Relations/Trade; C68; F13; Q17.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103380

Yamamoto, Yasutaka; Sawauchi, Daisuke; Masuda, Kiyotaka.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate over agricultural trade and environment by asking: Does agricultural trade liberalization under free trade agreement (FTA) reduce pollution from agriculture? In order to contribute to answering the above research question, we measure the potential impact of environmental pollution from agriculture caused by agricultural trade liberalization under the Japan-Korea FTA (JKFTA), using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and the OECD Nitrogen Balance Database. The scenario we model assumes the complete removal of all import tariffs between Japan and Korea, not only in the agricultural sector but in non-agricultural sectors, as well. The results show the JKFTA is likely to lead to an overall...

Economic Impacts of Brazilian Indirect Tax Reduction: An analysis of the competitiveness within MERCOEURO

Palavras-chave: Trade and environment; Free trade agreement; Computable general equilibrium modeling; Agriculture; Japan; Korea; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; C68; F14; F15; F18; Q17; Q56.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9969

Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes; Teixeira, Erly Cardoso.

The objective of this paper is to determine the effects of the creation of MERCOEURO stemming from an indirect tax reduction in the Brazilian economy. Four different scenarios were analyzed taking into account the elimination of tariffs on imports among the member countries in the MERCOEURO agreement and a 10% reduction in the indirect taxes on the final consumption, on intermediary inputs, and on sectors production. Simulations are run using GTAPinGAMS with the GTAP database version 6.0. The creation of the MERCOEURO generated significant results mainly in the agribusiness sector. A reduction in the indirect taxes on final consumption and over the intermediate inputs improve the competition and generate gains in growth, welfare, and government...

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS IN CHINA

Palavras-chave: Regional integration; Indirect taxes; General equilibrium; GTAPinGAMS; Sectoral competition; International Relations/Trade; F13; F15; C68; H20.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53440

Huang, Jikun; Hu, Ruifa; van Meijl, Hans; van Tongeren, Frank W..

China has made a major investment in biotechnology research. Genetically modified (GM) cotton is widely adopted and the list of GM technologies in trials is impressive. At the same time there is an active debate on when China should commercialize its GM food crops. The overall goal of this paper is to provide an economy-wide assessment of these issues under various scenarios. Based on a unique data from empirical micro-level study and field trial in China and a modified GTAP model, our results indicate that the development of biotechnology has an important impact on China's production, trade and welfare. Welfare gains far outweigh the public biotechnology research expenditures. Most gains occur inside China. Policy makers should put less weight on...

Effects of Increased Biofuel Blending on Demand for Biomass, Food Production and Commodity Prices in Eastern Germany

Palavras-chave: Economic impacts; Biotechnology; Genetically modified crops; China; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C68; D58; F13; O33; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25883

Zeller, Heiko; Haring, Anna Maria; Khachatryan, Armen.

Renewable resources are gaining importance in modern society due to their expected positive effects on agriculture, the environment and the economy. To support renewable energy from biomass the EU promotes the cultivation of energy crops. A spatial equilibrium model is applied based on the concept of maximizing net welfare, to provide information whether energy crop production competes with food production for land area and to show the effects of increased biofuel demand on food prices. The Model of Interregional Trade of Energy Crops (ITEC) refers to Eastern Germany and adjacent areas of Poland. Results show that the regions produce enough feedstocks to meet the demand for food and biofuel production. In many cases both food crops and biofuels are either...

GHG Mitigation Policies in Livestock Sectors: Competitiveness, Emission Leakage and Food Security

Palavras-chave: Energy crops; Spatial equilibrium analysis; Interregional trade; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; C00; C60; C68.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51477

Golub, Alla A.; Henderson, Benjamin B.; Hertel, Thomas W..

Recent research on livestock’s role in climate change has raised awareness about contribution that livestock climate policies can make to global mitigation efforts, and has increased the likelihood that mitigation policies will eventually be imposed on the sector. This study investigates effects of GHG mitigation policies on livestock sectors emissions and production by regional sector under a range of global mitigation polices that are broadly aligned with the different responsibilities of developed and developing countries under the UNFCCC. The study also examines emission leakage effects, impacts on food security in developing countries, and the implications of large informal livestock sectors in regions such as Sub Saharan Africa.